November: Review and Moving Forward

Stocks closed down yet again today as the continuing European crisis strikes fear in the heart of investors and a delayed vote on the possible extension of the Bush Era Tax Cuts.  Dow was down as much as 110 points today but closed ended the session down 46.  Nasdaq down 27 and S&P down 7. 

Stocks closed out November in a loss, the first monthly loss since August.  November saw big events that had mostly negative twists to them; QE2 and Ireland bailout (second Euro nation to receive a bailout this year).  QE2 has received many negative views and opinions.  Most of which are essentially worries of a "dollar crash" or very high inflation. 

EUROPEAN CRISIS UPDATE:

As for Ireland, many remain skeptical on Ireland's plan to get its economy stable again.  Another worry is that two European nations have received bailouts this year and there may be more to follow.

Standard and Poor are reviewing Portugal's financial documents and hinting at a downgrade.  Portugal seems to be heading closer and closer into the dark everyday with its huge debt position and the bond market issues. 

As for Spain, leaders have vowed to stabilize the economy and reduce the debt.  "Talk is cheap" is the main response from traders and other Euro leaders.  Spain needs to start acting now on its solution to keep down fears of default and a possible bailout. 

Prediction:  I predict that Portugal will end up being downgraded by S&P and will eventually need a bailout from the EU, marking the 3rd bailout.  I believe Spain will need some sort of EU assistance to help rebalance the debt but I don't believe they will need a bailout because they do seem to be aware of the situation and its severity.  Greece and Ireland will need more EU assistance, especially Greece.

In addition for the trades that were suggested my article "Playing the European Crisis", I would like to add gold.  Gold surged up over $21 today, but eventually closed lower, on Euro debt woes.  I believe gold is a great addition to the list of trades that were suggested in earlier article.  Possible ETFs are the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU). 

Look for the December Stock of the Month, coming soon!

**Share this article, look at options below to add this article or any article to your Facebook, Twitter, or email!!!

Disclosure: no positions

Disclaimer: Invest Chief is not held accountable to any loses sustained by stocks recommended. It is always important to do your own research of the stock before you invest. These trades and ideas are the opinions of the crew of Invest Chief. Invest Chief receives absolutely no compensation from companies that are recommended. We are a private organization, dedicated to promoting financial well being and prosperity.

Playing the European Crisis

As I wrote about in yesterday's post, Europe is in trouble.  Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece and possibly Italy are at the forefront of the financial crisis in Europe.  Overwhelming debts combined with already weak economies are creating serious issues.  The EU is now contemplating whether to make the bailout fund larger to suit the current position that Europe is facing.  However, Germany, largest contributor to the bailout fund, is hesitant to make the bailout fund larger because Germany is risking a large sum of capital in countries that are on the brink of defaulting. 

 I do believe that at the end of the day, Germany and the rest of the EU will have to compromise to allow a bigger rescue fund.  If they decide not to, the consequences could be devastating to markets around the world. 

All the while these events are happening, the Euro is being hit hard against the dollar.  Similar events occurred earlier this year when Greece was the main problem. 

Now it seems those days have returned and that sets up a few good trades as far as currency goes.  I recommend Powershares Bullish Dollar Index (UUP), and Proshares Ultrashort Euro (EUO).  These trades made great returns during the first European incidents at the beginning of the year, and they are sure to make good returns the second time around until Europe can stabilize the ailing economies.

There are other options at your disposal if you don't want exposure to currency.  We can use put options or short the individual countries that are having a hard time cutting down debt and stabilizing their economies.  A few trades that would be ideal are: iShares MSCI Ireland Index (EIRL), iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index (EWI).

Another route you can go (if you want a higher risk, higher return situation) is shorting Europe as a whole or shorting financials, which are the hardest hit sector in Europe.  If you want that higher risk a few plays that would suit that screen are: Proshares Ultrashort MSCI Europe Index (EPV), MSCI Europe Financials Sector Index (EUFN).  Be sure that if you play one of these trades that for EPV is already a short fund so you would simply just buy the ETF.  However with EUFN you would need to short it or buy put options.

No matter what way you plan to play the European crisis, I urge you to do your own research before you invest money, to understand if the risk is suitable for your financial situation.

***A recommended ebook read, Short Swing Trading, explains in detail how to go about using swing trading to benefit from companies that are turning lower. A proven technique that can produce very nice returns if you know how to find the signs that a company is turning.  You can bet that this ebook will provide you with those tools.  A great read that will definitely help you with successful swing trading.  Please click the link below entitled "Click Here". 
Click Here!

Disclosure: no positions

Disclaimer: Invest Chief is not held accountable to any loses sustained by stocks recommended. It is always important to do your own research of the stock before you invest. These trades and ideas are the opinions of the crew of Invest Chief. Invest Chief receives absolutely no compensation from companies that are recommended. We are a private organization, dedicated to promoting financial well being and prosperity.

Rough Start to Black Friday and Update on European Debt Crisis

Before we begin, a few announcements:

• I hope every had a very nice, safe Thanksgiving.
• A new feature has been added to Invest Chief.  At the bottom of each post there are options to: email, blog, Twitter, Facebook, and Google buzz to share with your friends posts from Invest Chief. 

Markets opened lower today on European debt worries.  The Dow is down 83.36 or .75%, Nasdaq down 7 or .3% and the S&P 500 is down 8.05 or .67%. 

The main focus today should be retail, its Black Friday.  Earlier this week a surprising consumer report came out that showed us that consumers are starting to spend their income again.  A surprising lower number of people are applying for unemployment benefits went along with the consumer report earlier this week.  Retailers are also cutting prices a record rates to make it even more affordable for consumers to splurge on holiday gifts.  This could point towards a good holiday retail numbers.  Now to be clear, we are in no way out of the woods.  Yes, the consumer is showing signs of recover, as is employment, very slightly.  However, keep in mind we still have an unemployment number around 10%.  That being said, the economy is, no doubt, much stronger than is has been in the last few years.  Please refer back to my "Playing The Cautious Consumer This Holiday Season" article from Monday to see how to play retail this holiday season.

Back to the European debt crisis.  Ireland was recently bailed out by the EU and they have issued a 4 year plan to get their economy back on target and stabilized.  However, many people are skeptical that Ireland will be able to hit that target because of its insistence not to raise the corporate tax rate, which the EU has been pressing Ireland to raise.

 The problems don't stop there.  I was reading the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday and an article entitled "Fears of Domino Effect Pervade Europe" caught my eye.  Essentially, the article says that because of Ireland's bailout and unstable economy, other EU nations such as Spain and Portugal, and Greece.  Spain's economy is on the brink, as is Portugal.  Greece's debt securities are at risk to default.  Lots of unrest is occurring in Europe right now which could prove to have worse outcomes than earlier this year when these problems were last in the spotlight.  A safe trade to be in right now is Powershares Bullish Dollar Index (UUP).  The Euro is not safe right now due to all the uncertainty in Europe.  The Pound fell against the Dollar based on risk adversion.  Lastly, the Dollar rallies against the Yen based on a higher inflation number in October.  We are in an uncertain time right now with Europe's economic woes, potential second Korean war, TSA full body scans at airports.  A safe place to be is UUP.


***Please take the time to look at Getting Started in Currency Trading by Michael D. Archer, which can be purchased via the link to the left.  I have read it myself and it is the best book I have read about currency trading (FOREX). 

Disclosure: No positions

Disclaimer: Invest Chief is not held accountable to any loses sustained by stocks recommended. It is always important to do your own research of the stock before you invest. These trades and ideas are the opinions of the crew of Invest Chief. Invest Chief receives absolutely no compensation from companies that are recommended. We are a private organization, dedicated to promoting financial well being and prosperity.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Have a great Thanksgiving! Enjoy the day with family, friends, football and a delicious feast.  I wish safe travels to all!

On a more serious note, tomorrow is a half day for the markets but most importantly its Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year.  If you going out, be safe and grab some deals! 

Preparing for Crashing Markets

I was surfing around seekingalpha.com the other day and I happen to stubble upon a very interesting article by Tim Ayles entitled "Preparing for Crashing Markets".  Mr. Ayles addresses the facts and the reality of a huge bubble that is to come because of the Fed and federal government's involvement in the markets.  Most importantly he addresses how you could position yourself favorable to with stand a bubble burst.

I thought this article needed to be heard more widely, as it is a serious problem.  It is the kind generosity of Mr. Ayles that I was given the privilege to republish his article on Invest Chief.  Please visit the "about the author" section at the bottom of this post.

Preparing for Crashing Markets (by: Tim Ayles)

If the Fed and government continue to meddle in the free markets in an attempt to prop up asset prices at levels that are "higher than they otherwise should be", you can be certain more bubbles and asset price crashes are ahead. I would say chances are about as good as the sun rising tomorrow.

Black Swan type events of bubbles crashing are beginning to happen closer in time than they ever have before. It creates the sense that things are quickly spinning out of control, leaving investors ever more skeptical and afraid of the future. These investors may forever pull their money from the stock market they increasingly feel is manipulated, and are more concerned with the return of their principal than a return on their principal. They do so risking their long term ability to not run out of money before they die.

Pragcap.com has done a good job in covering the aftermath of bubbles in the past. In this article, I want to present the case that the typical investor is not mentally prepared for a market rout, and then provide solutions for the way one invests as a means to overcome the panic that is sure to set in for most human investors during market crashes.

This chart is the anatomy of a typical bubble. You can see the different responses of different investor types as the bubbles take off and then crash. After the initial drop in prices following the mania phase, most investors think that they are faced with a great buying opportunity. As the market goes up from that dip, the idea of them being right is reinforced and they are left complacent in their regards for the risk they are taking. When the market turns back down and begins to crash, most investors are frozen expecting a bounce back to get them back to break even, where they promise God in their prayers that they will get out. As the market continues to plunge, they get to a point where they think the world is falling apart, and that they want to just save some of what they had, vowing to keep that money safe and promising to never return to the market. Right when they throw in the towel, the low is reached, and the market begins the next cycle of parting investors with their money.

I propose the reason that most people throw in the towel at the lows is that they view their investments completely wrong. The stock market to them is no different than a casino. They do not view the stock market as an easy way to own pieces of actual businesses that pay them actual profits from selling actual products. Price gains are all they focus on. The problem with price gains is that it IS gambling. Let me show you.

You can do all the research in the world on a stock. You can know the company's products, balance sheets, income statements, customers, management teams, etc. You do the due diligence and figure you are ready to buy at a certain price you feel is a great value. The moment you buy, you are now at the mercy of the market. You no longer have any control. The only control over your investment that you have is how much you are willing to risk, and when you decide to get out. As far as the direction of the price of the stock, you have zero control. Gains will be decided by the market as a whole. If those around you are scared, you will lose money. If they are euphoric, you stand to gain. Your wealth is not at the mercy of your friends and neighbors emotional state. The original buy price that you paid is basically your line in the sand. The company can grow is revenues and income, but if others aren't willing to pay a higher price than your "line in the sand" price, you don't make a dime. For those of you who think that a business who is increasing in value from higher earnings will have an ever rising stock price, you must have been asleep the past 11 years. Many companies have doubled and tripled their earnings the past decade, yet they have not seen their share prices go higher.

This is also a problem with the majority of mutual funds out there. Most mutual funds track the prices of stocks, and therefore have their own line in the sand number if you buy them. If you are retired and have been relying on these mutual fund share prices going up the past decade, you are running out of money.

This share price "line in the sand" mentality is what creates fear and panic at market lows and the eventual throwing in of the towel. If you buy a mutual fund at $30 per share, and hold it all the way down to $15 per share for a 50% loss, you probably lose heart. During those types of crashes, the news flow about the market and economy are terrible, thus reinforcing your fear. Based on what you hear, you are certain the stock market will languish for decades. You realize it will take years for your mutual fund to gain 100% from $15 per share just to get back to break even. You begin to rationalize being safe and selling at $15 per share because 50% of something is better than 100% of nothing. You don't want to see this thing go down to $5 per share, so you cash out.

If you are reading this and never felt this way or have never done something like this, your name is Warren Buffett. Everyone else reading this probably has a story that is similar.

Now for the solution. How can an investor retrain the way they think and invest so that when the next bubble does explode, they will not sell at or near the lows, only to watch the investment go higher without them?

Simple. Buy stocks of companies that sell products that people have to buy, creating large free cash flows, and have managements in place that want to pay the investors an income. By buying stocks that sell products people have to buy, you will create a first line of defense mentally in that you know the companies you own will probably not be out of business. If you buy Kraft Foods (KFT) for example and the stock drops 50%, you probably won't sell it out of fear they are going out of business. People will still eat food if the S&P 500 drops to 600.

More importantly, make sure any company you buy is paying a dividend that is more than covered by a healthy Free Cash Flow. Let's take a look at an example.

Verizon Communications (VZ) currently has a $92 billion market cap selling products that even homeless people at food shelters can somehow afford. Sporting a current yield that stands at 6%, the stock is more appealing than most bonds that I could buy today. Last year VZ paid out $5.2 billion in income to its shareholders through dividends, while bringing in $14 billion in free cash flow, meaning they had almost $9 billion more they could have paid out for dividends! In 2008 they made about $9 billion in free cash flow, almost double the $5 billion they paid out. As you can see, Verizon has plenty of money to pay out. Through the September quarter 2010, they have made $13 billion in free cash flow, having paid out about $4 billion in dividends.

So how will a company like Verizon help you not sell near the bottom? Well, I would argue that when you own a company like Verizon who pays a current 6% yield, and has no problem affording that kind of yield, it will be very hard to sell it if it drops 50% from here. If you invest $10,000 in VZ now and get a $600 per year for income, if the stock price drops to where your investment is worth only $5,000, although sad, you will be less likely to liquidate that $5000 and turn it into cash when the $5000 is currently paying you a 12% return ($600 on $5000 is 12%). Even with your line in the sand price 100% higher after the 50% drop, the solid dividend begins to force you to not do something stupid, like sell at the lows. At that point - you really can't get a much better deal than 12% on the money if you were to sell. Are you going to get rid of the $600 cash flow and put it in the bank to earn $12.50 a year? If your investment languished at a $5000 value for years, you at least get to earn $600 per year which you can go and spend on life's essentials you need. If you had $10,000 in a mutual fund that turned into $5000, you don't have the same luxury. To get the same same $600 for life essentials, you would have to sell $600 worth of your shares that are worth 50% less. If the market doesn't rally quick, you run out of money in 8 years. As we like to say at the office: "That's no bueno."

Some of you might be thinking, if the market dropped 50%, then the economy is doing badly and VZ is probably losing sales and seeing their earnings drop. To which I would reply, what if half the people in America got rid of their cell phone? Verizon's free cash flow could drop 50% from here, and they would still have enough cash to almost double the current payout.

And Verizon is not unique in this characteristic.

Another example would be Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). With a current market cap of $44.5 billion, BMY has kicked off $3.75 billion in free cash flow the previous 4 quarters. They could pay all of that cash out and give a solid 8.4% income at the moment. Currently, they pay out a healthy 4.9%, meaning that in the event of a 50% market crash, you would have to decide to sell them at yield of 9.8% and go to cash yielding .25%. Chances are in stressful economic times, the products they sell would be in higher demand. But even if their free cash flow dropped by 50%, they could still offer out a 4.2% yield in the worst of times. The risk to a BMY is eventual drug patent expiration, but the truth is, these types of companies have the franchises and cash flow to partner with most generics if not buy them out in order to maintain their cash flows.

In summary, if you want to mentally survive the next crash and not sell at the bottom, retrain yourself to think about income yields from individual stocks. Consider getting rid of mutual funds or story stocks who sell luxury products and don't pay out profits. Retrain your brain to think like a business owner and not a gambler. Litter your portfolio with companies like Verizon, Kraft Foods, and Bristol-Merys. Our portfolios have nearly 100 of these types of companies in them, so there are plenty to choose from. These moves alone will go a long way in helping you survive 30 years of retirement which should see many more bubbles and crashes if the Fed has any say.

Disclosure: Long KFT, VZ, BMY

About the Author: Timothy L. Ayles is the Chief Investment Officer of Napa Wealth Management, Inc. NWM has hand picked Tim both for his highly disciplined investment management techniques in building sensible client portfolios; and for his ground breaking developments in international mathematical investment models. Tim’s expertise is in the rarified atmosphere of commodity trading. He was the founder of Creative Investment Research Group that trained commodity traders all across the United States. Tim was born and raised in Napa and attended Biola University in Southern California.
He runs MA Capital, LP which is a long/short equity, private equity, and fixed income hedge fund. He is a Registered Investment ...More Advisor.

Playing The Cautious Consumer This Holiday Season

Tomorrow's GDP report will be key to give us an idea to whether we could be expecting a good or not so good Black Friday.  Economists are expecting the GDP to be reported at 2.4%. 

Regardless, there are a few plays that will be winners this holiday season for consumers that are spending less.  I do expect these companies to outperform in the retail sector this holiday season.  Here are your possible plays this holiday season:

• Best Buy (BBY): Best Buy is a top electronics retail play that does expect a huge holiday season.  The company was upgraded today by Barclays, who share the same opinion, that Best Buy will outperform this holiday season.  The rose their target to $51 and remained their outlook at overweight.  Best Buy was up 3% today on the news.
• Nordstrom (JWN): Nordstrom is a higher end retail play that is currently pretty cheap with a P/E of 18, ROE of 33% and a dividend yield of 1.9%.  Nordstrom has done a pretty good job of staying ahead of the pack in the higher end retail.  Look for JWN to capitalize on its sales momentum.
• Wal-Mart (WMT):  WMT is a great low cost retailer especially in this economic climate. Wal-Mart has great deals and savings that should be very attractive for the frugal consumer.  Wal-Mart is the largest offline retailer and they should easily post great numbers this holiday season.  The stock is very cheap at the moment with a P/E of 13, ROE of 22%, P/S of .47.  I like WMT.
• Amazon (AMZN): With a growing number of consumers looking for better deals online and skipping the crowds at the malls, Amazon, the largest online retailer, will be an obvious choice for consumers.  Amazon and Wal-Mart are in a huge price war this holiday season but I don't see it being a big deal because there will not be a big enough price difference to determine a clear "winner".  They will both be winners in their right.  Amazon will be the winner of online retail.

These companies are the top of the retail sector and will outperform this holiday season.  These companies manufacture success and know their market.  Marketing and deals have been very successful in the past and should have continued success this season.  Consumers are looking for the best deal this holiday season and I think these companies will give them those deals they are looking for.  Stick will Best Buy (BBY), Nordstrom (JWN), Wal-Mart (WMT), and Amazon (AMZN).

Disclosure: Long BBY

Disclaimer: Invest Chief is not held accountable to any loses sustained by stocks recommended. It is always important to do your own research of the stock before you invest. These trades and ideas are the opinions of the crew of Invest Chief. Invest Chief receives absolutely no compensation from companies that are recommended. We are a private organization, dedicated to promoting financial well being and prosperity.

Cisco: Good Long Term Buy

Cisco Systems (CSCO) makes IP networking devices and is a very prominent tech company that has been known as an innovator.  Last week Cisco (CSCO) reported 3Q earnings which were lower than the Street's estimates and on top of that, Cisco lowered its outlook.  Cisco blames lower government spending of IP products as the new Congress campaigns on cutting spending.  Needless to say, the stock was destroyed, down about 20%. 

As Wall Street becomes more and more bearish on Cisco, it could be time to pick up some shares at a cheap price of $19.61.  Cisco is a great value play if you are looking for a top tier tech stock that is temporally seeing some headwinds.  They have experienced issues in the past that they were able to bounce back after they looked to innovate their products and expand their markets.

Cisco will do as it has done before, innovate.  Find a new way to market their product, expand their market more rigorously in emerging countries.  That's right, Cisco has a growth rate of 12% for fiscal 2011 and 17% growth over next 5 years.  Much of this growth will come from emerging markets that are looking to update servers and networks.

On a more fundamental level, Cisco has a P/E ratio of 14, PEG (growth) of .99.  The PEG shows that shares of cisco are a little undervalued at the moment, and the P/E is in normal area.  As far at debt goes, Cisco has total debt of $15B but the debt/equity is at 34.  Essentially, what this means is Cisco has for every $34 of debt, $1 of equity.  This is a bit on the higher end of the spectrum, but Cisco is a stable company that will be able to pay off the debt.  Cisco has pretty solid fundamentals which is giving the stock an undervalued look at this point in time.

Trade: Buy Cisco as a long term trade.  Look for the long term view and ignore the current headwinds.

Disclosure: positions held in CSCO

Disclaimer: Invest Chief is not held accountable to any loses sustained by stocks recommended. It is always important to do your own research of the stock before you invest. These trades and ideas are the opinions of the crew of Invest Chief. Invest Chief receives absolutely no compensation from companies that are recommended. We are a private organization, dedicated to promoting financial well being and prosperity.

Stock Showdown: GM vs. Ford

GM (GM) returned to the Wall Street scene on Wednesday priced at $33 with about half a billion shares, the largest IPO in US history.  The stock has risen about 4% since Wednesday and there is a huge bull sentiment on the stock.  A huge catalyst for this sentiment was GM's better than expected 3Q earnings last week.  The two analysts that are covering GM recommend a "strong buy" with a median target (price target over next 12 months) of 46.25.

With all of this attention going to GM, whats new with Ford (F)? Ford fell 4% on GM's debut, but managed to come come back 1% yesterday.  Ford did not deserve the whipping on Wednesday, its just that its not "hip" right now with the coming of GM.

Chevy Camaro

Ford Shelby Mustang

The real question: Is GM's stock a buy or Ford's stock a buy?

Firstly, Ford was Invest Chief's Stock of the Month last month and it posted positive gains for us.  The stock went as high as 17.42 but in the recent headwinds pulled back.  I believe in Ford because they properly weathered the downturn without any government assistance.  Not to mention Ford has been outselling all other major brands in the last few months, while GM is in 2nd and 3rd place.  GM was hit very hard during the downturn and left the NYSE, bankrupt.  GM was known as "Government Motors" because the government had and still has a huge stake in the company. 

Although GM posted great 3Q earnings, I am going to need to see more quarters like that before I can fully endorse it.  Ford has already recovered and it shows in the high customer satisfaction surveys, great sales and revenue and just overall has their organization better.  Its their organization that helped them succeed in 2008.

Summary: GM's IPO is over hyped especially when their earnings are just now getting stronger.  Not to mention over hyped IPOs tend to fall pretty hard once the hype goes away, so beware of that in the coming weeks.  Ford on the other hand has had great success for a while now and needed no government assistance what so ever during 2008.  GM has to prove that it can outperform again before I can get behind it .

Trade: Buy Ford (F)

Discloser: No positions at time of writing

Disclaimer:  Invest Chief is not held accountable to any loses sustained by stocks recommended. It is always important to do your own research of the stock before you invest. These trades and ideas are the opinions of the crew of Invest Chief. Invest Chief receives absolutely no compensation from companies that are recommended. We are a private organization, dedicated to promoting financial well being and prosperity.

Back to Work---Look Back At the Events Since October

Hello fellow readers! I apologize for my over month absence.  There were some serious issues that were occurring with my family but things are better now.  I am back and there has been a lot of things going on since my last post on October 6th.

1.  The Republicans took over a huge amount of seats in Congress, and took over the House of Representatives.  Look for a huge push in spending reduction, lower taxes, and reducing the deficit.

2.  The Fed began QE 2 to try an stabilize the economy and promote more growth.  Whether this will ultimately have a negative effect or positive is yet to be seen.  However, as we can see by the Treasury yields there has been a "silent crash".

3.  Still lots of M&A action going on out there which is a good symbol that companies that have a record amount of cash on their balance sheets are beginning to use the cash to buy up companies or buy back stock which is a good sign.

4. Irish bailout was announced today after the country has had a hard time stabilizing their finances.  The bigger issue here is that European countries that were having trouble at the beginning of 2010 are getting back into trouble i.e. Greece, Spain and possibly Italy.  The EU must be assertive and move quickly to stabilize any problems that surface before the issue gets out of hand.  I think their response to Ireland's issue was pretty quick and will overall help Irish.

5. GM returns to Wall Street in the largest IPO in US history with over half a billion shares that started at $33 a share.  In GM's first day back, the shares were up around 8% intraday but closed up 3.6% at $34.19.  Look for an article to get the story on whether GM is a good buy or a good place to stay away from.


October's Stock of the Month: Ford (F) started the month at $13.01 and ended the month at 14.13.  Thats about a 7% gain. Not too shabby! Look for November's stock of the month!

Its great to be back in the swing of things! I will return to posting articles if not everyday, every other day.  Thank you for your support!